The Shifting Tides of India-Russia Relations: A New Era of Strategic Pragmatism?

The high-stakes meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek marks a seismic shift in the bilateral relationship. For decades, India and Russia have been bound by a strategic partnership that has endured through thick and thin, but the current global landscape is forcing New Delhi to reevaluate its ties with Moscow.

The energy sector is undergoing significant transformation. Prior to 2022, Russia’s share of India’s crude imports was negligible, but discounted Russian oil has since become a lifeline for India’s energy-starved economy. This development has created tension between New Delhi and Washington, which has pressed India to reduce its purchases from Moscow. Indian officials argue that securing affordable and reliable energy is a national interest, but the disruption to traditional energy supplies has complicated this calculation.

The current crisis in global energy markets, triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed up prices and forced India to diversify its sources of supply. This includes increasing purchases from Russia as well as exploring partnerships with the US. Meera Shankar, former Indian ambassador to the US, notes that “a transition to a non-fossil fuel economy would strengthen India’s energy independence.” However, this will not happen overnight.

Defense cooperation remains another critical pillar of the India-Russia relationship. But here too, the direction of travel is clear: India’s dependence on Russian equipment has been declining. The Ukraine war has raised questions over Russia’s production capacity, delivery schedules, and ability to supply spare parts after decades as a major supplier of Indian military hardware. Aravind Yelery, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, notes that “India remains one of Russia’s oldest and largest arms buyers,” but New Delhi is increasingly reluctant to commit to Russia’s fifth-generation fighter program.

The changing terms of the defense relationship reflect India’s growing desire to develop its own defense industry. New Delhi wants a partnership that contributes to its domestic production, allowing it to move away from simply buying finished systems. This strategic shift aligns with India’s broader effort to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers and become a more self-sufficient military power.

The China question has become an unavoidable part of the India-Russia equation. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has become indispensable to Moscow as a market, supplier, and economic partner, reducing its ability to serve as a counterweight to Chinese influence in Eurasia. Strategically, Russia’s relationship with China remains transactional, while its partnership with India is based on mutual interests.

This new reality has significant implications for the future of the Indo-Russian relationship. C Raja Mohan, a strategic affairs expert and professor of American Studies at Jindal Global University, notes that “Russia is no longer in a position to help India balance China.” This changes India’s expectations from the relationship with Russia, shifting the emphasis towards specific interests such as energy security, defense supplies, trade, and access to technology.

The Modi-Putin meeting at SCO will undoubtedly focus on these issues: reassurance that India will remain engaged with Moscow despite pressure from Washington, continuity rather than a dramatic reset. Rajan Kumar, a professor of Russian studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, observes that “President Putin needs an assurance from Prime Minister Modi that India will not ditch Russia when the latter is facing its worst crisis since the 1990s.” Beneath this façade lies a more profound shift: India’s growing pragmatism in its relations with major powers.

As New Delhi navigates the complexities of the new global order, it seeks to diversify its partnerships and reduce its exposure to American volatility. The outcome of this meeting will have far-reaching implications for the Indo-Russian relationship as well as regional dynamics. Will Modi and Putin be able to find common ground in the face of these pressing challenges? Or will this summit mark a turning point in the bilateral relationship, signaling a new era of strategic pragmatism for India?