Ford’s Trump Card: How the Premier’s Provocation May Pay Off in the Byelections

The Ontario premier’s willingness to engage in a public spat with Donald Trump has yielded an unexpected dividend: a surge in his approval ratings just before three crucial byelections. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this latest controversy will swing the outcome of these key races in favor of the PCs.

For Doug Ford, taking on the mercurial U.S. president seems to have become a winning strategy. His past battles with Trump have proven to be a boon for his popularity, and this week’s war of words appears to be no exception. According to Liaison Strategies opinion survey, Ford’s personal approval ratings jumped by 12 points during the controversy.

The PCs are facing stiff competition in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, where voters will go to the polls on Thursday. Voter turnout is traditionally low in these ridings, but Ford’s fight with Trump may have tapped into simmering public anger at the U.S. president.

Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy believes that this controversy could drive up support for the PCs in all three byelections. “I think it will help immeasurably,” he said. “Voters are going to look at that ballot and the person who’s most associated with anti-Trump sentiment right now is Doug Ford.” Milloy notes that channeling public frustration against Trump into a vote for the PCs may be exactly what some voters need.

The NDP, however, remains confident in their chances despite the potential impact of the Ford-Trump controversy. “Ford desperately needed a channel changer — and the fact that he got one called Trump may help him in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek and Scarborough South West,” said NDP strategist Erin Morrison. While Morrison acknowledges that the PCs have been mired in controversies, she believes the Official Opposition has been working hard to win these byelections.

Conservative strategist Sam Duncan agrees that the fight with Trump plays to Ford’s strengths, reminding voters why they sent him back to Queen’s Park with another majority government. “It’s always been a strength of (Ford’s) to really understand how people are feeling,” Duncan said. “He has met the moment emotionally where Ontarians and many Canadians feel from a rhetoric standpoint.”

Not everyone is convinced that this controversy will have a significant impact on the byelections, however. McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe cautions against over-estimating the effect of the Ford-Trump spat. “In a place like Hamilton East, where steel tariffs are of particular concern, his promises to protect the province may resonate more,” he said. “But overall, I think the impact will be relatively marginal.”

As voters head to the polls on Thursday, it remains to be seen whether Ford’s Trump card will pay off in the byelections. Only time will tell if this latest controversy proves to be a turning point for the PCs or has little bearing on the outcome of these key races.