BRICS Summit: A Fragile Consensus in Turbulent Times

The recent BRICS summit in New Delhi, hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has garnered attention for its unexpected success in forging a joint statement among rival nations despite their divergent interests and positions on the escalating Middle East war. This achievement is being hailed as a testament to Modi’s diplomatic prowess, but it also raises questions about the sustainability of such fragile consensus in the face of rising tensions.

The summit brought together key leaders from China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other nations, all of whom have competing interests and allegiances. The negotiations were particularly complex, given the need for agreement among countries with sharply divergent geopolitical positions. India’s balancing act was evident, as it sought to maintain ties with both Iran and the UAE, US, and Israel.

The joint declaration by the BRICS nations is more a show of unity than a genuine commitment to cooperation. Divisions within the group remain deep-seated, particularly between India and China over their longstanding border dispute. The agreement on language related to the Middle East war was only achieved after hours of intense negotiations.

The summit’s broader agenda for the Global South includes proposals for greater trade in local currencies, closer cross-border payment links, and reforms to institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. While these ideas aim to promote economic cooperation among developing economies, they require significant institutional changes that may be difficult to implement. For instance, a proposal for a new reserve currency would need buy-in from major economies.

Modi’s efforts to use the summit to advance his image as a leader among Global South nations should be seen in the context of India’s foreign policy. The country has been seeking to maintain its strategic autonomy by balancing ties with different ideological camps, including the US and Russia. However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult as relations with the United States have frayed amid President Donald Trump’s trade war.

The BRICS summit’s success also belies the underlying tensions between nations. The Middle East war has intensified in recent days, with oil prices surging close to $110 amid worries over energy supplies. Asian equities and bonds have slumped, reflecting the growing uncertainty about global economic prospects. In this context, the joint statement by the BRICS nations appears more as a short-term fix than a long-term solution.

The summit’s outcome should also be seen in the context of India’s own domestic politics. Modi is seeking to use the summit to shore up his image as a leader who can maintain ties spanning different ideological camps. However, this effort may not be enough to offset the challenges facing his government, including rising unemployment and economic slowdown.

The long-term implications of this fragile consensus are far from clear. While Modi has scored a short-term win, the underlying tensions between nations remain deep-seated. The BRICS summit’s success should not be taken at face value; instead, it highlights the difficulties of achieving lasting cooperation in a world where national interests and allegiances often diverge.